During a opulent speakeasy-style gathering hosted at Raffles hotel in central London recently, prominent figures from the remaining ranks of the Conservative party celebrated the Spectator’s parliamentarian of the year awards.
Given the publication's stance still just about support the Conservatives, despite the party confront severe challenges posed by Reform, observers expected that speculation swirled at the champagne-fuelled event focused on whether Kemi Badenoch’s job faced threats.
Party Tensions Surface at Ceremony
One senior figure, a former leadership contender, made pointed remarks from the stage targeting the obvious aspirations of a fellow frontbencher, Robert Jenrick – considered the main challenger.
“Am I after her job? Will I make a move against the leader and steal the crown? Certainly not,” the experienced politician told the laughing audience while commencing the awards ceremony.
The runner-up from last year, and has been pitching alarmingly to the right to take on Nigel Farage, did at least manage to chuckle. His own manoeuvres are far from discreet.
Countdown to Leadership Contest Begins
Months ago, one of the Tory leader’s disgruntled backbenchers set up a countdown clock on social media of the days left until Conservative rules allow leadership bids. That clock reaches zero this weekend.
At that point, opponents within the party will be able to submit letters to trigger a contest. The rules changed last year raising the required support, meaning 30% from parliamentary colleagues are now needed, up from 15%, creating a higher bar for those trying to oust her.
Potential Contenders and Backing
Is it feasible for opponents – Jenrick foremost among them – secure support from colleagues needed to initiate proceedings? Tory insiders point to previous nomination totals during the last race: 28 in the first round. “That’s your starting point,” they said.
There is no shortage of Conservative legislators ready to express their frustrations about Badenoch: her approach, her decision-making, her public appeal. But, for the most part, they remain cautious regarding repeating of political regicide so soon.
Breathing Space and Poll Concerns
Several party members also believe the leader's conference address at the autumn party conference, announcing a policy to remove property tax for main residences, secured her a few months of breathing space.
“We might not be happy with Kemi’s leadership but we’ll be very careful regarding a change. Voters already perceive we engage in internal conflicts. We should avoid providing further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.
That is not to say planning has ceased. “Kemi has until May. Upcoming council polls could be disastrous for us. Nobody is going to want to take over before that and have to own the result. However, post-elections, we will need somebody who can take us in a new direction,” a frontbench source commented.
Survey Data and Public Perception
The polls already suggest the leader has gained minimal ground with the public in the past twelve months with declining in personal approval. At -22 points, she is less popular compared to her rival and another colleague, per recent polling.
Additional research also shows that the leader has persuaded just one in eight voters she is ready for higher office. The outlook improves among Conservative voters, with 54% saying she has done a good job as party leader, with fewer than a third opposing her continuation the party into the next general election.
Future Scenarios and Party Dynamics
Despite mixed feelings among base voters, a general agreement exists within parliamentary ranks that Badenoch will not be the one to lead the party into the next election.
The key disagreement is whether it would better for a spring leadership change to potentially halt Reform’s momentum – or leave it until closer the election date when Farage might have imploded, and public receptiveness improves toward Conservative messages.
It is no secret that Jenrick thinks he is the right candidate. However, associates claim he won't act immediately, and is among those who thinks they should wait until spring.
Other Candidates and Approaches
There is also a theory that the party’s potential saviour from less expected with a lower profile (the shadow climate secretary Claire Coutinho gets mentioned) or among newer MPs without strong associations to previous governments.
Cleverly, who came third, is also cited as a potentially unifying figure, and has been keeping his powder dry. Supporters indicate he sees no better option but to carry on with Badenoch, as anybody taking over now would face greater challenges.
Should a race begin, there would undoubtedly be those urging Cleverly to stand, and he may be persuadable to give it another shot. A small group of centrist MPs are organizing opposition efforts to prevent Jenrick from being crowned from winning.
Conservative Shift and Political Calculations
A well-connected Tory warned how the “energy is all on the right” both inside and outside the party, citing figures such as several prominent MPs. “Opportunity exists for Cleverly given his experience and membership connections, and some want to stop Robert at any costs.”
“Quite a lot of minds potential agreements or coalition with Reform eventually. Recent parliamentary divisions regarding social issues there was a lot of ‘we need to kick the people who voted for those out the party’ and Reform’s private messaging is ‘you’ve got some Lib Dems sympathizers must go. That tips things the challenger slightly.”
Yet another source noted: “The outcome remains a foregone conclusion. We could have a strong competition involving multiple candidates – other prominent figures. The idea that the rightwing candidate always wins the membership may not hold true.”
